Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Yes, Virginia, all four results are possible

Australia ahead by 185 runs, three wickets in hand. One of those includes Mitchell Johnson, who could very easily put Australia 250 ahead before they are dismissed. India could chasing be chasing 250-260 with some 65 overs in hand. No VVS, a perennial-failure-in-the-second-dig Viru (and to make things worse, someone who has now proceeded to fall three times in a row to the short ball), a shaky Dravid, a debutant, and another one with weakness against the short one, Raina (who also showed some lack of nous by obligingly falling into Ponting's trap in the first innings); things could get very interesting.

All this said and done, I'd rank the possible results as follows: 1. Draw 2. Indian win 3. Australian win 4. A tie

Why have I put a draw as the #1 option? For two reasons: one, India is notoriously weak at dismissing the tail in these situations (Dhoni is as susceptible to the giving-up-a-single-to-the-better-bat disease as any other captain out there), and two, India are very bad at last-day run chases that require some enterprise. If Australia get to beyond 250, India will not chase. A quick collapse that sees India chasing 210 before lunch is doable, but it requires Sehwag to fire. And that sadly, I've become pessimistic about. I'd love to be proven wrong.

Australia's win chances lie in creating a panic by wickets and fielding hustle. I wouldn't put it beyond them.

Should be a great day's play.

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2 Comments:

Blogger AgniHothra said...

India chasing 223 are 73 for loss of Viru at lunch.Writing this at 12 noon IST 13 Oct. C Pujara is promoted to 3. Is this the glimpse of future?
Will they finish what they have started.. wait a few hours.. Will update at EOP.
Agni

2:35 AM  
Blogger Samir Chopra said...

Agni: I awoke at 5 to find India comefortably on their way (close to finishing up in fact). What an easy win at the end.

6:48 AM  

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