Getting it right (with some hiccups)

A few days ago, when writing of Pakistan's chances in the second test at Sydney, I suggested that they were in trouble despite being 206 ahead in the first innings. Later, I grew more confident and went to JRod's blog to make a more definitive prediction. Australia's collapse induced some doubt in my mind that my prediction would hold. I seriously considered not going for the fourth day's play. But fortunately, my friend John Sutton (the never-to-seen kenelmdigby co-author on this blog), said he would go regardless of whether prices would be reduced or not. So, off we went, and I'm glad we did. (More on that day's experience at the SCG a bit later).

My prediction landed up looking very good indeed as Pakistan lost by 36. Why did I pick the 35? Well, I felt that Pakistan would get close to small target but not too close. That their panicking would have occurred earlier. Which, of course, it did.

Pakistan have had their chances in their series. In all three tests. They haven't taken them. Australia have. 3-0 might not be "fair" but when was test cricket supposed to be that way. Part of saying a team was "better" is that they take their chances. There is no point in saying Australia got lucky or that Pakistan were unlucky. The better team is winning. As it should.